Former President Donald Trump's polling numbers are giving Democrats a false sense of security, longtime Democratic strategist James Carville warned during an appearance on Real Time with Bill Maher on Friday (August 23).
Trump is currently trailing Vice President Kamala Harris by a 47.2% to 43.7% margin, according to polling averages conducted by FiveThirtyEight.com, however, would still surpass the 270 electoral vote threshold to be elected based on state polling, according to RealClearPolling.com.
“I challenge Democrats with some caution here. First of all, most want to say we have to win by three in the popular vote to win the Electoral College. So when you see a poll that says we two up. Well, that’s actually, you’re one down if the poll is correct,” Carville said.
“The other thing is Trump traditionally, when he’s on the ballot, chronically under-polls,” he added.
Trump famously defeated former First Lady and Senator Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election despite trailing by 6.5 points in polls. Clinton won the popular vote, but lost the Electoral College by a 304 to 227 margin.
Trump also trailed President Joe Biden by nine points in polls leading up to the 2020 presidential election, however, lost by just 4.4 percentage points.
“Traditionally, with Trump on the ballot… Democrats say, ‘Oh James, you’re a Debbie Downer.’ I’m not. I’m just telling you, you got to win by three,” Carville said.